There is no unimportant playoff series. But with the Toronto Maple Leafs hoping to reach the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time in 23 years and hoping to avoid second-round losses into an uncertain offseason, it is certainly arguably that their physical clash with the Florida Panthers is the most important of this Maple Leaf era.
And now, this most important series boils down to three best. Game 5 at Scotiabank Arena tonight will determine whether Toronto will return to Florida, hoping to win the conference finals or on the verge of elimination. These big bets require breaking down some of the looming issues (Tonight and the rest of the series) which will help decide who keeps going and who goes home.
Is household ice important?
So far, both teams have remained perfect within the friendly sphere of their family arena during the series. That’s good news for the Maple Leafs, who plan to hold Game 5 at the same time and top the regular season in Florida if necessary. However, it remains to be seen whether the later stages of the series will be conducted in the same home team-friendly way.
You will surely remember the Maple Leafs’ flat performance against the Ottawa Senators in Game 5 of the first round as they failed to call up any offense with a disappointing 4-0 loss. Hopefully they showed the same punchless game in a 2-0 road loss, making all offensive lethargy stand out from their system in a 2-0 road loss for the Panthers.
Scotiabank Arena is definitely buzzing
What a crazy hockey period – 20 minutes in absolute boxing game #LeafSnation #LeafsForever pic.twitter.com/7hxnj27ea0
— Damienlisi (@damienlisi) May 8, 2025
While you might expect home ice to bring an extra boost to maple leaves, that’s not always the case. They have made consecutive playoff appearances in the past eight seasons and have accumulated an 8-14 record at home. In the 2023 playoffs, their 1-5 record at Scotiabank Arena (including a 0-3 against the Panthers) almost secured a second round exit.
In this playoffs, things are at least better. Being turned away in Game 5 against Ottawa, marking the only home loss to date, as Toronto’s overall total was 4-1. Optimistically, maybe this Maple Leafs are more proficient in the playoffs and have grown to play in front of fans. But when the stress of playing at home starts, their struggles may get deeper and they will get deeper into a series.
Will Auston Matthews return to scoring goals?
It is incorrect to suggest that Auston Matthews has performed poorly so far in the playoffs. He ranked third with scores per game (two goals and eight assists) in 10 games, and thanks to his elite two-way game, he ranked second with plus/sinus (plus 3).
However, for one of the top goal scorers in the game, finding the net is an important part of the equation, especially for the team captain, which costs $13.25 million per season on books. If this is a weird trend with the playoffs, that wouldn’t be too worried, but Matthews averaged just 0.38 goals per game per game throughout the 65 playoffs, compared to 0.64 goals in the regular season in his career.
On the one hand, the noise around Matthews increased only by the falls of Maple Leaf to the South. The team has proven their ability to play the role of the organizer and defensive support with him. But on the other hand, William Nylander, John Tavares and Matthew Knies are the club’s only strikers, with more than two goals so far. At least, a happier, criminal Matthews could help adjust Toronto’s offense, and the Panthers performed well in Game 4.
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Which goalkeeper will decide on the series?
The goalkeeper always became a big storyline in the series, but it only became a focus after Sam Bennett’s elbow stretched behind Anthony Stolarz, and in the first game the Maple Leafs occupied the mesh network. Joseph Woll looked solid in his second game, struggling in Game 3 and then showed his best playoffs in Game 4 (although in the reasons for the failure).
We know that Stolarz is back on the ice with Maple Leafs goalkeeper Curtis Sanford, but it is about when we can see him re-action when we can see him recover from his head injury. Meanwhile, Woll has playoff experience, is a 1A goalkeeper and maintains the trust of the teams around him. Another strong performance (Ideally, Toronto would definitely prefer the ability to win) will only increase confidence in the net, while also eliminating the feeling that the team needs Stolz to win between pipelines.
While the story in the crease of the maple leaves correctly dominates Toronto-centric media coverage, it ignores the key factors on the other side of the ice. Panthers veteran goalkeeper Sergei Bobrovsky is one step away from the series’ normally stable self. Of course, he recorded his fifth professional playoffs in Game 4, but the night when clean sheets are only taxed in the office is not a particularly taxed night. Overall, the 36-year-old scored 3.12 goals in the average game, while the series had a savings percentage of .875, a far cry from the 2.32 GAA, and he earned 0.906 SV percent in his Stanley Cup win last season.
Since Stolarz returns in the series are unlikely, but not impossible, who will be the biggest X-factor in the network in the rest of the very tense series.
Could the series get even more intense?
It’s easy to see from the beginning of the series that competitors in these partitions don’t like each other. After the Panthers managed to essentially bully the Maple Leaf submission in their five-game 2023 series, Toronto seemed determined to match their opposition to a tougher, more physical and mental roster this time. Bennett then took out Stolarz, and Chippy’s game and the chaos of the rear whip reached a whole new level.
Things only escalate from there, resulting in a series that has already been struggling and physically punished in four games. Where we go from here remains to be seen. Will Florida be hitting a dubious field season at the end of Game 4 at Aleksander Barkov, will it seek retribution tonight? Or is it a silly, expensive fine as the bets in the series are higher and no team is willing to be stupid?
The Maple Leafs performed well in Game 2 and did not allow the urge to seek a broader focus at Bennett Cloud. One would think that two experienced clubs (one of which is the defending cup champion) would find a way to hate each other to win two of the last three games of the series.
Within a few days, all these questions and more will be answered as we understand the fate of the Toronto playoffs. By simply winning the second round, they have gone a step further than the first eight Maple Leafs’ playoff efforts. Of course, this is not a satisfactory benchmark for anyone involved in the organization, so try to pursue the intensity and drama of waiting.
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