Can Tampa Bay Lightning be counted as Nick Paul as their third-tier center? – Hockey Writer – Tampa Bay Lightning

The Florida Panthers have won a third straight Dustanley Cup final, thanks in large part to their third line, where the players know their roles and perform well. In the 2025 playoffs, the third row of newly acquired Brad Marchand, Anton Lundell and Eetu Luostarinen is the Panthers’ difference.

The Tampa Bay Chargers made the trio in the 2020 and 2021 Stanley Cup playoff wins. But after winning multiple Stanley Cups, Lightning was unable to pay a premium for its bottom six striker, and they all landed elsewhere. Tampa Bay has built weak teams in the depth of the way forward over the past few seasons, and they have not won the playoff series since 2022.

But with the prospect of youth and wage cap rising, the Lightning may be able to fill some of the loopholes entering the 2025-26 season, and over the past four years, we may see the deepest Flags. Still, there is an unresolved question about whether Nick Paul can carry lightning third line.

Paul performs better in high-end talent

Nick Paul received a seven-year contract at the 2022 NHL trade deadline for the 2022 NHL trade deadline, which reached a seven-year contract with Lightning that summer, with an average annual price of $3.15 million until 2029. Paul has scored 20 goals and 40 points in each of the past two seasons, making him a great third-tier center. But deeper diving can better portray Paul’s true value.

Related: Tampa Bay Lightning 2024-25 Player Forecast: Nick Paul

First, Paul’s 15 goals in five-on-five last season were considerable, ranking 73rd among the NHL forwards. However, two of Paul’s three most common teams have been helped with his total three goals (20%).

These two circle groups are Mitchell Chaffee and Gage Goncalves. Paul spent about 30% and 25% of their five-on-five ice time last season. So you hope they contributed more to his 15 goals. Meanwhile, Paul found the back of the net at a better speed when paired with the high-end players. The duo of Brandon Hagel and Anthony Cirelli assisted six of his 15 goals, while Jake Guentzel played only 167 minutes in a five-on-five match, but Jake Guentzel assisted the two.

Of course, better players will improve those around you, and Paul will likely generate more games with the best forward of Lightning. But what if he doesn’t pair with the highest talent in the playoff series with the defending Stanley Cup champion in the playoff series?

Paul’s playoff performance and competition for the third-tier center

In the 2025 round of the Panthers, Paul was not paired with Hegel and Cyrely, and only took 12 minutes on the ice with Geisel. His most common forwards are rookies Goncalves and Conor Geekie. There is a hockey difference of 3 when Paul pairs with Goncalves. Additionally, the expected target difference between Paul, Goncalves and Geekie’s trio was -0.56, the worst of any Lightning Forward combination in the series for at least 10 minutes.

From 2019 to the 2022 Stanley Cup playoffs, the four most successful teams (most playoff wins) have third-tier centers, who control 53.44% of the expected target share, or five to five (XGF%), with three of them at least 55.81% of the target share (with 55.81 shares) (gfFf) (gff).

Moving to the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs in 2022, 75% of the centers outperformed their opponents in the ice goals, while 50% of the games outperformed their opponents’ Ice on-Ice goal share. Players used in the 2019-22 sample included Gourde, JT Comppher, Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Nicolas Roy, while players in the 2022-25 sample included Lundell, Adam Henrique, Matt Duchene and Roy (again).

Meanwhile, Paul failed to meet these two thresholds in 16 playoff games in 2022-25. He controlled only 41.18% of the target share, accounting for 47.79% of the expected target share. Considering his teammates, is Paul the best three-line center choice for his own Lightning, or does he need a better support actor?

Lightning must rely on rising caps and youth development

As Carolina Hurricane General Manager Eric Tulsky once said, you can never prove theories, just refute all the competing theories. Is Paul a legal third-tier center for a competitive team? Or, we can reimagine the question as: Can we refute Paul’s level of being at the third-tier center that is usually found on Stanley Cup competitors? The answer is not clear, and there is debate to support both sides.

On the one hand, Paul’s regular season five-to-five-point production, hockey shot share and hockey mass share were below the average threshold for competitors’ standard third-line centers. In addition, in the eight centers I compared him against him, his five-on-five playoffs arenas, with the share of hockey shots and the share of hockey mass at the bottom.

Meanwhile, Paul has not provided the lap length mass of some other players in our sample. Gourde has players like Coleman and Goodrow in 2021, while Lundell plays with Marchand and Luostarinen.

Paul does not exceed or even meets the performance of the “legal” third-line center, but he does not have the same circle length in this role. Lightning must rely on the development of young players and may get some roster acquisitions to set ideal boundaries for Paul, who enters the fourth of his seven-year contract next season.

Paul is by no means a terrible player because he has some clutch time for Lightning. But he needs proper teammates because we deny the idea that he can carry his own line. Don’t expect that Paul will lightning list the third line of Stanley Cup driving. However, with the right player combination, he can be a contributor to the equations of a competitive team.

All statistics from evolving hockey and natural statistics skills