Heading into the 2025 draft cycle, most scouts and draft media viewed Cooper Flagg as the clear top prospect. Many scouts (myself included) believe Flagg is a special prospect with the ability to develop into an NBA superstar.
A few other prospects, notably Dylan Harper, have quietly joined the conversation. But I think Flagg's start to the season only adds to his confidence in his superstar projection. Let’s discuss three reasons why Flagg remains the clear No. 1 pick in the 2025 NBA Draft and one of the best prospects on the planet.
Flagg’s high usage rate could lead to on-ball creation potential
Critics often accuse Flagg of being ineffective. So far, his true shooting percentage is as high as 50.5%. Context is important here, as Flagg's age (he turns 18 on Dec. 21), height and offensive load all factor into this number. He has a whopping 30.4% usage rate, tied with Dylan Harper for the second-highest usage rate among high-major freshmen this season (Jeremiah Fears ranks first).
The vast majority of high-usage college draft picks are linebackers. Flagg is clearly an outlier here given his 6-foot-9 frame. He joins Michael Beasley, DeMarcus Cousins and Vernon Carey Jr. as the only freshmen since 2008 who are 6-foot-9 or taller to have a usage rate above 30%. Crucially, Flagg is a far better passing prospect than those three players.
He always passes the ball at a high level Flashes of NBA quality Going back to high school. That playmaking ability translates immediately to the college level, reflected in his passing numbers – a 23.4% assist rate, 7.0 assists per 100 possessions and a 1.6 assist-to-turnover ratio.
His combination of playmaking ability and heavy usage helps us imagine Flagg's eventual path to running the ball at the NBA level. Since 2008, the only other freshmen taller than 6-foot-8 with an assist rate above 20%, an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.0, and a usage rate above 25% are Ben Simmons and Scottie Barnes. The combination of high offensive responsibility, passing volume and turnover avoidance at a young age is extremely valuable.
Flagg has shown his ability to create downhill advantages with his speed, size and explosiveness, although his ballhandling and dribble count still need work. But that's true of almost all 17-year-olds. Jon Scheyer asked Flagg to lead an offense against some of the best teams in college basketball, and all things considered, he has said yes.
His shooting range is very strong
Converting shots to the NBA level is one of the most challenging aspects of scouting. Many rookies, especially freshmen, don’t have a consistent three-point shooting sample. Cooper Flagg is shooting 24.4% from 3-point range so far, but that's only on 41 attempts. For example, if five of those shots were missed, Flagg's three-point shooting percentage would jump to 36.6%.
Combining his final seasons in high school and AAU with Flagg's start in college paints a clearer picture of his shooting prowess — 33.2% (83-250) on all three-pointers. similar efficiency Dribbling and catching the ball. This may not seem impressive, but most teenagers, especially ones as tall as Flagg, are not efficient shooters. Anthony Edwards, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, Buddy Hield, Donovan Mitchell and Tyrese Maxey all had three-point shooting percentages as freshmen. Less than 30%.
Flagg's shooting metrics, especially free throw percentage and field goal percentage, are solid. He's shooting 76.3 percent (45-59) from the line this year. Add in his high school and EYBL free throw shooting, and we get 83.3% (299-359). He attempted 7.1 three-pointers per 100 possessions.
I'd love to see him increase the volume to 8.0 or 9.0 to have more confidence in his shot taking considering the value of volume. His shot versatility, flash of dribbling and running shooting add to Flagg's inspiring shot-making. Flagg's development into a high-level shooter will clear up and broaden his path to stardom.
He's an elite defensive prospect
Mainstream scouting analysis has never valued defense as much as I thought it would. Given the relative lack of defensive statistics, it can be challenging to measure and evaluate defenses, especially compared to offenses. However, Flagg's interception and block data are very good. So far, the block rate is as high as 5.1% and the steal rate is as high as 3.1%. Since 2008, only freshmen such as Zion Williamson, Nerlens Noel, Tari Eason and Andre Roberson have been able to match those numbers.
Cooper Flagg's 5.1% block rate and 3.1% steal rate so far make him one of five rookies since 2008 to meet those benchmarks
Incredible range, versatility and shot-blocking instantly translates to a high level of ball play pic.twitter.com/xZN96mSwNH
— Ben Pfeiffer (@bjpf_) December 18, 2024
Flagg covers large areas as a weakside shot-blocker and jumps over passing lanes for easy transition opportunities. He's excellent on-ball defense, and his lateral quickness and size rival smaller players. He's still considered the type of defensive prospect who could challenge for the Defensive Player of the Year trophy when the time comes.
It's a very valuable commodity that NBA teams sometimes underestimate. Even without discussing his offensive potential, Flagg's defense has elevated his baseline to a ridiculously high one.
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