When will the Red Wings of Detroit begin rebuilding?
This question produces different answers depending on your requirements.
Some point to 2017, the team’s first year of the team’s ongoing playoff drought and now it’s nine seasons. Others will point to April 2019, when Steve Yzerman was officially appointed General Manager of Red Wings (GM).
Regardless of where the timeline begins, the 2018 draft represents the first real opportunity for Red Wings to inject some life into the team’s prospect pool. They won four draft picks in the top 40 draft picks, including sixth place. Then-Red Wings general manager Ken Holland and his amateur scouts finished the draft with the team’s two-round picks, Filip Zadina and Joe Veleno.
None of these players have red wings, but you probably already know.
However, this article is not about Zadina or Veleno. This post is about how the draft has made it to the playoffs in nearly a decade.
…But let’s talk about Zadina & Veleno
Since the start of the playoff drought, the Red Wings have made multiple choices in the first round: 2018, 2021 and 2023. Their two draft picks in 2018 were positioned as early foundations for the team’s reconstruction, especially afterwards and knew that the team would be fully committed to the reconstruction one year later.
Think of Zadina and Veleno’s draft day predictions. One is considered a potential elite goal scorer, and the other is seen as an optimistic prediction of the two-way second-line center. Until Alex Debrincat became the former and Marce Kasper was the latter this season, there was nothing happening to Red Wings.
It may take some time to fulfill the promise of draft day. The Red Wings welcomed two players (Albert Johansson and Elmer Söderblom) to the team this season, part of the organization’s 2019 draft course, proving that sometimes patience can really pay off. But when this promise is never fulfilled, it can have a ripple effect that echoes over the years, especially for organizations dedicated to “building through drafts.”
Jonatan Berggren
Now, let’s take a look at the only player left in the Red Wings 2018 draft course: Jonatan Berggren. The Swedish winger just finished his second NHL season, scoring 12 goals and 24 points in 75 games this season. He has a total of 29 goals and 58 points in 154 games. He was the 33rd pick in the draft and produced the offense at a higher rate than Veleno, who was selected for three positions before Berggren.
Berggren was a restricted free agent this summer, aged 25 in July. He has proven himself capable of creating offenses in the NHL, but he hasn’t been able to sustain anything. He won’t be violating the bank next contract, but his future issues in Detroit have nothing to do with money, it’s about whether the Red Wings are maximizing their roster.
This season, Berggren is essentially a poorly-effect version of Daniel, with the red wings from last season. Berggren’s value on the ice is almost entirely associated with the offensive zone, but his offensive total this season is pale (18 goals, 43 points) compared to last season’s Sprong. Although he produced his production, the red wings still began last summer. Given his overall lack of impact, it wouldn’t be surprising if Detroit also moves on from Berggren this summer.
If Red Wings did decide to part ways with Berggren, that means Detroit effectively got what it took from the 2018 draft, because not only were they no longer their draft picks in the organization, but those participants did not generate any other assets, such as through a deal.
Cannot maximize assets
One of the many tasks faced by any professional sports team front desk is to maximize assets available. This usually means by putting their players and prospects in a successful position and then deciding whether to commit long term or trade them to another team for other assets, usually draft picks and prospects.
Zadina has never been traded. In fact, he left Red Wings through contract termination because he wanted a greater chance than Detroit. This causes players to miss millions of dollars, while Red Wings can effectively get zero values from drafts that would have been chosen. Without extracting value from similar senior drafts, the organization can be restored for a year or more, and we see evidence in Detroit.
Veleno was traded to the Chicago Blackhawks during this year’s trade deadline. In exchange, the Red Wings won 35-year-old forward Craig Smith and 33-year-old goalkeeper Petr Mrázek, who is the contract for next season. We will see how things are going, but the 30th pick in the 2018 draft won’t be good.
Related: NHL draft pick success rate
Only Berggren participated in the 2018 draft and the reconstruction of the Red Wings began. They have done a great job for most of the first round since, and it seems they have taken a little ground on the second year basis, which added Johnson, Söderblom and Moritz Seider to the group in 2019.
However, it only emphasizes the point where Yzerman takes over the red wings in 2019. The flaws in the NHL roster are obvious, but their prospect pool is effectively empty. Often, talent is lacking throughout the organization, and can only be seen in newly formed expansion teams that have to fill the roster with scrap from each other team, and an organization that only takes place once a year in drafts.
When you are behind 8 goals, the road back to glory is always long and winding. No team is immune to setbacks, but what Red Wings did in 2018 is roughly the same as leaving the road trip and driving the big nail right after leaving the neighborhood.
It’s no surprise when you look at it this way, we still haven’t reached the end of this trip.
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